Conference Championship betting trends
Wouldn’t it be great to know what was going to happen in the NFL Conference Championship games this weekend ahead of time?
Unfortunately, Gray’s Sports Almanac is not lying around and we lost the keys to our DeLorean. But we have identified a few bits of data that could prove invaluable during this weekend’s playoff football.
These are the ten most important betting trends to know before the NFL Conference Championship round kicks off Sunday.
NFC Championship Game
The San Francisco 49ers get Sunday’s events underway with a battle against the Philadelphia Eagles. These teams finished with the two best records in the NFC and are widely considered to be the most complete teams in football.
the Niners went on the road and beat Philly 17-11 in Week 2 last year
As great as both teams are, only one of them will advance to the Super Bowl. The Niners went on the road and beat Philly 17-11 in Week 2 last year, but that was before quarterback Jalen Hurts transformed into a premier MVP candidate.
The Eagles also produced a much more convincing result last weekend, stomping the New York Giants 38-7, while the Niners barely squeaked by the Dallas Cowboys 19-12.
According to FanDuel sportsbook, Philly is favored by 2.5 points at home. Here are our five favorite betting trends for the matchup.
49ers vs. Eagles betting trends
SF: The 49ers are 19-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 22 matchups against NFC opponents
SF: The 49ers are riding a 12-game winning streak, during which they have gone 10-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 15.5 points.
PHI: Conference championship hosts favored by seven or fewer points are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
PHI: Teams that won by seven or fewer points in the divisional round are 8-11 ATS in road conference championship games in their last 19 attempts.
Under: The under has hit in ten of Philadelphia’s last 11 home playoff games and in nine of the 49ers’ last 11 playoff games.
AFC Championship Game
The Cincinnati Bengals are hitting the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive season.
the Bengals are also 3-0 against the Chiefs in the Joe Burrow era
Cincy won last year’s game 27-24 in overtime thanks to a strong second-half performance, during which Patrick Mahomes was uncharacteristically quiet. The Bengals are also 3-0 against the Chiefs in the Joe Burrow era and are fresh off a resounding win over the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs opened as favorites, but dipped to two-point underdogs because of concerns over Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. If he is not at his best, the Chiefs’ one unflappable advantage will be gone, and the Bengals will be in the driver’s seat. On Thursday, however, the line flipped back to Kansas City -1.5 after Mahomes said his practice on Wednesday went better than expected and was listed as a full participant on Thursday.
Regardless of where the line settles, it should be a close game. Here are our favorite trends to analyze before the game kicks off.
Bengals vs. Chiefs betting trends
CIN: The Bengals have covered the spread in nine straight games as the underdog and are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 as underdogs.
CIN: Regardless of the favorite, the Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games.
KC: The Chiefs were tied for the third-worst record ATS in the regular season (6-11) and did not cover in the divisional round.
KC: Home teams are 10-6 ATS in the last 16 AFC Championship Games; Kansas City hosted four of them and went 2-2 ATS.
Under: Five of the Chiefs’ last eight and nine of the Bengals’ last ten playoff games have gone under.