Joe Burrow for Super Bowl MVP

Several top sportsbooks have penned Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow as the new favorite to win Super Bowl LVII MVP.

moving from underdogs to favorites

Burrow’s shortening odds coincide with his team moving from underdogs to favorites in their impending matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game Sunday. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was dinged last weekend, raising concerns over how well he and his team will hold up.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy are also among the top contenders for the award. Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is the most-likely non-QB to win the MVP.

Passing Mahomes

Caesars sportsbook has Burrow at +330 to win the Super Bowl MVP. If he does, that would mark two Super Bowl appearances, one Super Bowl MVP, and, in all likelihood, a Super Bowl trophy in just two years as the full-time starter.

Such a start would be one of the best in the history of the NFL and beyond the likes of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and other all-timers. It would also put him firmly in the conversation for best player in the league, a debate that had started and ended with Mahomes (+350 to win Super Bowl MVP). 

Mahomes’ ankle continues to raise doubt

Winning the Super Bowl MVP, however, starts with beating the Chiefs this weekend. Kansas City opened as 1.5-point favorites at home, but dropped to as low as a three-point underdog at certain sportsbooks as Mahomes’ ankle continues to raise doubt. Lines have since dropped to having the Bengals as one-point underdogs after Mahomes fully participated in Wednesday’s practice.

The Bengals have the advantage of precedent on their side heading into Sunday’s matchup. They are 3-0 against the Chiefs in the Burrow era and, as previously mentioned, knocked them off on the road in the same round last year.

Regardless of who wins, the Chiefs-Bengals rivalry looks like it could drive the NFL for the next decade-plus, much like the Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots rivalry did in the 2000s.

Consulting the history books

If the Bengals win this weekend, they will play either the Eagles or the 49ers for the Super Bowl. Regular-season performances would suggest the Eagles are the more likely, but San Francisco is riding a 12-game winning streak and looks nearly unstoppable.

Philly QB Hurts, like Mahomes, is +350 to win the Super Bowl MVP at Caesars, although a couple of books have him as the outright favorite. The last time he played in a title-deciding match was in the 2017 College Football National Championship, where he was benched at halftime for current Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. However, he has made massive strides as a passer since then.

Purdy winning the award would mark the most historic achievement of the bunch by far. No rookie quarterback, much less the last pick in the draft, has ever led a team to the Super Bowl. For him to reach and win the Super Bowl and also take home the MVP trophy would be unprecedented.

22-33 passes for 263 yards and a touchdown and did not turn the ball over

Looking at last year’s Super Bowl, Burrow did not play a bad game. He completed 22-33 passes for 263 yards and a touchdown and did not turn the ball over. Unfortunately, he did not have the gas to keep pace with a high-flying Rams team that was in a year of destiny. 

The results of this weekend’s championship games will cause massive shifts in odds as soon as the final whistle blows. From then, bettors will have two weeks to figure out who they are backing to win Super Bowl LVII MVP.

Quarterbacks have won nine of the last 13 Super Bowl MVP awards, although a wide receiver won last year and two of the last four.